"The WORLD'S GATEWAY TO PACIFIC RIM AGRIBUSINESS"

 

Our January 12th Speaker was:
Mr. Vernon Crowder, Agricultural Economist for Bank of America

Topic: Long Term Trends in California Agriculture, '99and Beyond

Mr. Crowder is an agricultural economist with an international reputation and is very familiar with the diverse agricultural economy of California. He will discuss the economic and market trends underpinning the economy in California as it relates to agriculture and how these changes may impact agribusiness both in the Ventura county area and statewide.

- Here is his talk in RealAudio! (~50 min.)
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Long-term Outlook as seen by Mr. Crowder:

The longer term outlook for the U.S. agricultural industry is a continuation of the structural changes that began in the early 80s. Absent pervasive production difficulties, sales at the farm level will eventually grow at a slightly faster rate than historical experience. The highest growth is expected for the value-added processing and marketing sectors of the food and fiber systems.

Consolidations and mergers are expected to continue as the food processing segments seek to reduce operating costs and capitalize on core competencies in specific markets. Food processors are also shifting emphasis to improving long-term profitability with increased investment in newer technology aimed at higher productivity and implementation of new product development programs. These trends will be especially important in fast growing value-added product lines where increased domestic and foreign competition, declining profit margins, and rising costs for regulatory compliance are threatening the pace of future growth.

Global food demand is expected to outpace gains in production, until the adoption of new technology catches up in both the U.S. and abroad. The cost of farm inputs will increase slightly faster than historical trends because of greater constraints on natural resources and environmental measures, but total production costs will rise more slowly due to improved productivity. Mid-sized farms will continue consolidating or breaking up into smaller "life style" rural homes.

U.S. ag exports are expected to resume their growth as impediments to trade are gradually reduced, as other countries' population and income levels rise, and as they adopt western-like food consumption patterns.

 
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