Long-term Outlook as
seen by Mr. Crowder:
The longer term outlook for the U.S. agricultural industry is a continuation of the
structural changes that began in the early 80s. Absent pervasive production difficulties,
sales at the farm level will eventually grow at a slightly faster rate than historical
experience. The highest growth is expected for the value-added processing and marketing
sectors of the food and fiber systems. Consolidations and mergers are expected to continue as the
food processing segments seek to reduce operating costs and capitalize on core
competencies in specific markets. Food processors are also shifting emphasis to improving
long-term profitability with increased investment in newer
technology aimed at higher productivity and implementation of new product
development programs. These trends will be especially important in fast growing
value-added product lines where increased domestic and foreign competition, declining
profit margins, and rising costs for regulatory compliance are threatening the pace of
future growth.
Global food demand is expected to outpace
gains in production, until the adoption of new technology
catches up in both the U.S. and abroad. The cost of farm inputs will increase slightly
faster than historical trends because of greater constraints on natural resources and
environmental measures, but total production costs will rise more slowly due to improved
productivity. Mid-sized farms will continue consolidating or breaking up into smaller
"life style" rural homes.
U.S. ag exports are expected to resume their
growth as impediments to trade are gradually reduced, as other countries' population and
income levels rise, and as they adopt western-like food consumption patterns.